Chances of Miscarrying After Seeing the Fetal Heartbeat on an Ultrasound

The risk of miscarriage drops after a physician can detect the baby's heartbeat on an ultrasound.

Research suggests that your odds of having a miscarriage are lower after a fetal heartbeat has been detected by ultrasound. This is especially true if you're not experiencing vaginal bleeding and you're without other risk factors (such as being older, smoking, drinking, or having an infection).

Learn more about the common risk factors for first and second trimester miscarriages. We also explain how your chances decrease once the heartbeat is seen.

chances of miscarriage after seeing a heartbeat

Photo Illustration by Michela Buttignol / Getty Images

Odds of Miscarriage After Heartbeat

According to one study, here's the overall risk of miscarriage in asymptomatic pregnant people after detecting a heartbeat:

  • Risk after 6 weeks: 9.4%
  • Risk after 7 weeks: 4.2%
  • Risk after 8 weeks: 1.5%
  • Risk after 9 weeks: 0.5%

An older study found a 3.2% miscarriage rate after 8 weeks (it didn't differentiate between people with and without miscarriage symptoms).

It's natural to feel anxious about the health of your developing baby. But if their heartbeat has been detected by ultrasound, that's a positive sign that everything is progressing well. Research shows the risk of miscarriage is reduced once the baby's heartbeat is seen.

First Trimester Miscarriage After Heartbeat

Physicians generally agree that the risk of miscarriage decreases once an ultrasound can detect a heartbeat, which happens around six weeks of gestation. The exact amount the risk decreases, however, varies.

For example, those with vaginal bleeding have a heightened miscarriage risk even after a heartbeat is detected, especially if the bleeding is heavy.

Other factors that increase your chances of miscarriage include:

  • Age over 35 years
  • Certain medical conditions
  • Problems with the uterus or cervix
  • Previous history of miscarriages
  • Excess weight
  • Alcohol, smoking, or drugs

The most common cause of miscarriage is chromosomal problems in the sperm or egg, which can be either hereditary or spontaneous. Around half of miscarriages are linked to fetal chromosomal issues, and most happen randomly and aren't due to either parent's health.

Second Trimester Miscarriage After Seeing a Heartbeat

Having an incompetent cervix is a common cause of second-trimester pregnancy loss. Also called "cervical insufficiency," this is a condition in which the cervix weakens and dilates too early, leading to miscarriage or (depending on the length of gestation) pre-term delivery.

If a pregnant person has a history of incompetent cervix, seeing a heartbeat doesn’t reduce the risk of this particular cause of miscarriage, and early prenatal care is essential.

Other risk factors for second trimester miscarriage include:

  • Fetal abnormalities
  • Problems with the placenta
  • Uterine problems
  • Certain maternal health conditions, especially if uncontrolled or untreated (diabetes, kidney disease, severe high blood pressure, lupus, thyroid issues, etc.)
  • Certain infections
  • Certain medications
  • Abdominal trauma
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Sources
Parents uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.
  1. Prediction of subsequent miscarriage risk in women who present with a viable pregnancy at the first early pregnancy scan. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology. 2015.

  2. Miscarriage Risk for Asymptomatic Women after a Normal First-Trimester Prenatal VisitObstetrics & Gynecology. 2008.

  3. Low fetal loss rates after ultrasound-proved viability in early pregnancy. JAMA. 1987.

  4. Association Between First-Trimester Vaginal Bleeding and Miscarriage. Obstetrics & Gynecology. 2009.

  5. Role of maternal age and pregnancy history in risk of miscarriage: prospective register based study. BMJ. 2019.

  6. Recurrent Pregnancy Loss Etiology, Risk Factors, Diagnosis, and Management. Fresh Look into a Full Box. J Clin Med. 2023.

  7. Early Pregnancy Loss. American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. 2018.

  8. Cervical Insufficiency. StatPearls [Internet]. Updated 2022.

  9. Causes: Miscarriage. National Health Service (NHS). Reviewed 2022.

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